The BBC Radio 4 ‘Today’ Programme have run a story this morning regarding the advice the Met Office gave to our government customers ahead of the exceptionally wet weather of April to June 2012.
This was an extreme period of weather that saw a marked change from dry conditions to very wet conditions in a very short period of time.
Following the exceptionally wet weather of late spring 2012 the Met Office provided a full report into the possible reasons for the switch from dry to wet conditions. Our report states that the advice provided in the long-range outlook for April to June 2012 issued in March 2012 ‘was not helpful’ to our government customers.
However, looking at the skill of these outlooks over many individual forecasts clearly shows that they provide useful advice to their specialist users on over 65% of occasions. In addition these outlooks are never used…
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